In 2011-12, in India as a whole, the share of agriculture in total employment was 48.9 per cent of the workforce. In 2014-15 (as per first revised estimates), the share of agriculture in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of India was 17.4 per cent at constant (2011-12) prices (Table 2.1). The Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-13 to 2016-17) had envisaged a growth target of 4 per cent for agriculture and allied sectors, which is necessary for the Indian economy to grow at over 8 per cent. During the last three years, the growth rates in agriculture have been fluctuating at 1.5 per cent in 2012-13, 4.2 per cent in 2013-14, and (-) 0.2 percent in 2014-15. According to the “Provisional Estimates of National Income 2015-16” published by the CSO (Central Statistics Office), the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector has shown a growth rate of 1.2 per cent in 2015-16. The “First Advance Estimate of National Income 2016-17” of the CSO estimates the growth in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector to be 4.1 per cent.
The agricultural sector in Kerala is facing a serious crisis of growth. According to data from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), using 2011-12 as base year, agriculture and allied sectors recorded a growth rate of 1.43 per cent in the first year (2012-13) of the Twelfth Plan period. However, the sector witnessed a negative growth rate during the following three years with growth rate of (-) 6.31 per cent in 2013-14, (-) 1.09 per cent in 2014-15 and (-) 2.9 per cent in 2015-16. The share of Agriculture and Allied Sectors in the total GSDP of Kerala has also declined from 14.38 per cent in 2011-12 to 11.48 per cent in 2014-15 and to 10.38 percent in 2015-16 (Table 2.1).
|Sl No||Year||Share of Agriculture and allied sectors in total GVA (India)||Share of Agriculture and allied sectors in GSDP (Kerala) #|
# fig with 2004-05 base in brackets; (P) Provisional (Q) Quick
* Second RE (new series), @First RE
Source: CSO and Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Kerala
India is heavily dependent on the South-West monsoon (June- September) for most of its annual rainfall. However, many parts of southern India, viz, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Kerala receive considerable rain from the north-east monsoon (October- December) also.
The realized rainfall during the South-West monsoon season (June- September 2016) over the country as a whole was 97 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) and it was in the normal category (96-104 per cent of LPA). The seasonal rainfall over three of the four geographical regions of the country, except central India, was less than the respective LPAs. The realized rainfall during South-West monsoon 2016 over the country as a whole and in the four broad geographical regions is given in Table 2.2.
|Region||Actual Rainfall (mm)|
|North West India||584.2|
|North East India|
Source: 2016 South West Mansoon End of Season Report, IMD
Out of the total of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, 4 sub-divisions (13 per cent of the total area of the country) received excess rainfall, 23 sub-divisions (72 per cent of the total area of the country) received normal rainfall and the remaining 9 sub-divisions (15 per cent of the total area of the country) received deficient rainfall. Out of the 9 deficient sub-divisions, 4 sub-divisions were from the South Peninsula (Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep).
The monsoon current advanced over the Andaman Sea two days earlier than its normal date of May 20, 2016 and set in over Kerala on June 8, 2016. However, the further progress was very slow. The South-West monsoon covered the entire country by July 13, 2016, which was 2 days earlier than its normal date of July 15, 2016.
Source:Report of Indian Meterological Department
The withdrawal of the South-West monsoon from the Indian sub-continent in 2016 was on October 28, 2016, which was 13 days later than the normal date of October 15, 2016 (The all-India area-weighted rainfall from June 1, 2016 to September 30, 2016 shows an actual rainfall of 862.0 mm against the normal rainfall of 887.5 mm with a deficiency of 3 per cent).
The Meteorological Sub-divisions which received deficient rainfall during the South-West monsoon in 2016 is shown in Table 2.3
|Sub-division||Deficiency (per cent)|
|Assam and Meghalaya||-30|
|Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi||-27|
|South Interior Karnataka||-21|
Source: 2016 South West Monsoon End of Season Report, IMD
The actual rainfall received in Kerala during the South-West monsoon (June 1 to September 30, 2016) was 1352.3 mm as against the normal rainfall of 2039.7 mm in 2016 showing (-)34 percent departure from the normal, which was the highest in the country. All the districts of Kerala received deficient rainfall during the period. The percentage departure from normal rainfall was highest in Wayanad District. The Actual rainfall received in the District was 1073.8 (mm) against normal rainfall of 2632.1 (mm).
The deficiency in rains continued during the North-East monsoon season also as the actual rainfall received in Kerala was 185.0 mm against the normal rainfall of 480.7 mm, which was a (-) 62 per cent departure from normal. Highest percentage of departure from normal was in Kozhikode District (-82 per cent). All the districts except Ernakulam, Kollam, Kottayam and Pathanamthitta received scanty rainfall (-60 per cent to -99 percent) in this period. These four districts received deficient rainfall (-20 per cent to -59 per cent).
The pre-monsoon rainfall received in the State from March 1, 2016 to May 31, 2016 was normal with a departure of (-)18 percent from the normal. The actual rainfall received during the period was 313 mm. Excess rainfall was received in Thiruvananthapuram district, while 7 districts (Alappuzha, Kannur, Kasargod, Malappuram, Palakkad, Thrissur and Wayanad) received deficient rainfall and 6 districts (Ernakulam, Idukki, Kollam, Kottayam, Kozhikode and Pathanamthitta) received normal rainfall. The percentage departure from normal was highest in Kannur District (at -53 per cent). Appendix 2.1
*(Excess(+20 per cent and above), normal (-19 per cent to+19 per
cent), Deficient -20 per cent to -59 per cent,
Scanty -60 per cent to -99 per cent)
Source:Report of Indian Meterological Department